There’s been a subtle, and perhaps less subtle change in language since Monday.
Chadwick is keen to point out the could rather than the will but that’s probably just semantics.
The more meaningful change is around the passenger flights Spring 28 narrative. This has now been called an ‘ambition rather than a commitment’, this ties in with the external aviation advisors who suggest that the base and low models are most likely, with the low resulting in ‘no significant airline traffic for several years’. They do claim that a high model could see airlines consolidate into DSA, but I’m not sure which airlines they could be, Ryanair and Jet2 couldn’t consolidate their EMA and LBA ops at DSA, there simply isn’t room! So I think that’s a wildcard that they too deem as unlikely.
Freight demand is ‘surprisingly larger than expected’, although perhaps not in the high aviation value sense. Magma look keen to return which is not a surprise, I expect other ad/hoc and scheduled freight will return, but an integrator perhaps less likely.
With that in mind I think it’s plausible that this ‘phased reopening’ pauses at freight, 2Excel and GA. The structure of the deal means SYMCA would get 70% controlling rights, which means they’ll be keen to ensure the airport isn’t a huge loss leader (as far as is practically possible) and the passenger side is probably the most cost intensive aspect of the operation. The people who have supported it because of their own belief that cheap flights will flood the market may well be disappointed, but ultimately they’ll have brought aviation back to the site, they can blame the predicted crisis on the delay in attracting passenger flights, eventually turn the terminal and carpark land over for freight or other associated uses, and perhaps have a Blackpool on steroids operation. LDRS reporter, Harry Harrison, has openly gone on the offensive today over his apparent pull up by Coppard and Jones over reporting that the reporting of the lease negotiations as having failed were ‘categorically incorrect’, but the SYMCA board papers have said that the lease negotiations ‘faltered’. Again, semantics. One thing I’ve deduced from all of this is that the freehold purchase is the final reluctant option, it is not the ideal scenario for Coppard by any stretch, even judging by his stance over the last four years. This is why I fully believe, with SYMCA control, he will be keen to minimise the financial exposure owing to the scrutiny that will be applied. I therefore think rather than 2028 for passenger flights being an ‘ambition not a commitment’, that passenger flights are an ambition and not a commitment in general.
That is purely my opinion based on what we’ve seen. I do find it interesting that they have a Head of Cargo and GA, but they do not yet seem to have appointed anyone in the aviation development role, Christian Foster and the Ops Director have gone to routes in Frankfurt. MAI appear to have not had particularly good results last year, and the aviation consultants have clearly not seen any evidence of tangible interest when they were building and assessing their forecasts.
Be very interesting to see how this plays out.
