As an aside the longest unbroken service from BHX to the US is our old friend Orlando must be well over 30 years and still massively undeserved compared to London and Manchester at three-weekly summer only, four next year by TUI according to a post by Mr Finkle, but we've been down that road before as well.
Indeed the TUI product has grown considerably over the last few years. In fact May 2022 saw over twice as many people fly to Orlando than in May 2019 (Melbourne now vs Sanford then). No doubt that is in part due to the limited travel over the last few years, but if TUI are further increasing flights next year hopefully that's a good indication this higher passenger level is sustainable.
Like I said yesterday I can't see any of the US majors or BA/Virgin operating transatlantic for the forseable - just my opinion.
I'd certainly agree with this up to 2025. As for if/when it happens, I still think United is the most likely candidate:
1). They have already served BHX in the past, so have an extensive amount of data on the market
2). This year, they are offering their largest ever TATL network. 25% bigger than 2019, and serving more destinations than every other US airline combined (
https://www.businesstraveller.com/b...er-record-transatlantic-offering-this-summer/)
3). Orders for 50 A321XLR due to arrive from 2024. Widely seen as a replacement for the B757 on TATL routes (for all airlines, not just UAL), and should make the route even more viable.
4). Has the largest hub in the NYC area for onward connections.
Obviously the only caveat to that, and something that we will never know, is on what terms United left in the first place. If it was UALs choice then its not a problem, but if they felt forced out because BHX preferred another airline, it'll be harder to get them back again.