Bristol: Airport Route Development & Rumours

[forest1979]

Very good news for BHX indeed. They are having a terrific year, but whilst it offers more choice for BHX users and competition which may result in price wars, it's interesting to note that none of Jet2's destinations are new for the airport and at a quick glance I didn't think any of them would be new if they were launched at BRS.

On a different note, as someone said above, I would love for Norwegian to set up at BRS. I don't know what source the poster above has for thinking we might see Norwegian any time soon though.

Some expansion by Wizz would be welcome too.

 

[forest1979]

Very good news for BHX indeed. They are having a terrific year, but whilst it offers more choice for BHX users and competition which may result in price wars, it's interesting to note that none of

 

[forest1979]

Bit of a fluff there with trying to post!!!

I've emailed Norwegian last year to see if Bristol were on their radar. Bit of a big standard reply, focus on gatwick, Birmingham and Manchester. If they do come to Bristol it would be a great addition. I have read their service is very good..

 

[Marko1]

Any ideas or predictions what we may see in summer 2017. I have seen rumours of another easyjet aircraft coming and I suspect we will see increases from Ryanair too. Any ideas of new airlines to come ? There has been a lot of speculation regarding jet2 with several airports although I suspect people are jumping the gun a little bit to expect the airline to suddenly open multiple bases in one season . Also is there plans for more apron space given that there is some discussion as to whether Brs may be close to full ( somehow I can't see a successful airport turning away flights )

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Any ideas or predictions what we may see in summer 2017. I have seen rumours of another easyjet aircraft coming and I suspect we will see increases from Ryanair too. Any ideas of new airlines to come ? There has been a lot of speculation regarding jet2 with several airports although I suspect people are jumping the gun a little bit to expect the airline to suddenly open multiple bases in one season . Also is there plans for more apron space given that there is some discussion as to whether Brs may be close to full ( somehow I can't see a successful airport turning away flights )

Lots of sensible, practical questions but few if any reasonable answers I'm afraid. Not that I'm aware are in the public domain anyway.

I've heard the easyJet speculation as well but whether that's just based on the five-year agreement between airport and airline which I think will be in its third year in 2017, and this year and last year did produce an additional based aircraft in both years, at least in the summer.

It does seem that overnight apron space is beginning to become a headache. It was discussed on F4A two or three months ago but how much, if at all, that will impact on passenger growth in the next year or two I really don't know.

BRS has seen some impressive growth last year and this with a likely additional 1.1 million passengers over these two years by the end of 2016, taking this year's figure to 7.4 million, perhaps a bit more. I would not anticipate growth of that sort of level in 2017 but I didn't expect 2015 to be matched in 2016 whereas it's on track to easily beat 2015.

I'm not sure that BRS would feature with Jet2, even if it had the space which it may not according to some, if that airline opened more bases in addition to BHX and the hotly rumoured STN. Then again, it's often easier to forecast the winners and losers in the Premier League than the actions of airlines.

As for future developments, the expansion plans firmly show more apron space on the east end of the north side, with a walkway and new stands in the area currently occupied by the old terminal buildings. That's not going to happen overnight though. For starters, new office accommodation would have to be built to replace that being used in the old terminal area.

Addendum (3.9.16)

Someone kindly put this link in another forum today. It's the current aircraft stand plan at BRS.

Currently there could be up to 29 overnighters on the north side apron:
13 easyJet
5 Ryanair
5? bmi regional
3 Thomson
2 Thomas Cook
1 KLM Cityhopper

http://www.ead.eurocontrol.int/eadb.../NON_AIRAC/EG_AD_2_EGGD_2-2_en_2016-07-21.pdf

 

[Ray Finkle]

Qatar have announced an order for 100 Boeing aircraft, including 787-900's, they've also signed a letter of intent for up to 60 737 MAX8's.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/customers/qatar-airways/qatar-airways-order.page

Potentially good news for Bristol? Their UK representative did say that they were looking at serving the South West and BRS seems the obvious choice.

Could the 737 MAX open the door or is it more likely to be a 788 freed up from elsewhere?

The one thing that isn't made clear is when these aircraft will start to be delivered.

 

[Jerry]

Could the 737 MAX open the door or is it more likely to be a 788 freed up from elsewhere?

A daily MAX could be used to start the route and then if it's successful upgrade to a 787 at a later date or just add another MAX flight.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

The 737 MAX might open up a lot of European secondary and tertiary airports for Qatar. I'm thinking of commercial viability as much as operational.

When I spoke to a senior BRS management figure in June he told me that the ME was not imminent. By that I took him to mean not in the next two or three years. He didn't specify the period but the context of the brief conversation we had led me to that conclusion.

 

[kraktoa]

Has Newcastle lost the Newark route?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Has Newcastle lost the Newark route?

Yes. United said a couple of months ago that they were not going ahead in 2017.

NCL's loads were significantly lower than BRS's and NCL only operated in the summer, the time when loads are normally best of course. Doesn't help the cause of other smaller regional airports hoping for a NYC connection, although Brexit uncertainty has probably made it unlikely anyway for the foreseeable future.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-37034062

 

[Severn]

Below is a list of airports in Europe which handle more passengers per year than BRS but are not currently served from BRS. (I did remove LHR, LGW, STN, LTN, BHX and MAN from this list as these are all too near to BRS to assume that direct routes would be started(even though MAN has been served before)).

This hopefully will show which destinations may be at the top of the list for the airport/airlines for new services from BRS:

Note:
AIRPORT - Likely airport
Airport - Unlikely due to another airport served in same city already
Airport - Unlikely due to city not served outside of London or at all​

NORTHERN EUROPE

• OSL
• ARN
• HEL

WESTERN EUROPE

• ZRH
• STR
• CGN

• ORY - (unlikely as CDG is already served for Paris)
• TXL - (unlikely as SXF is already served for Berlin)
• CRL - (unlikely as BRU is already served for Brussels)

SOUTHERN EUROPE

• IST
• ATH

• SAW (second airport in Istanbul, unlikely to be served over IST)
  
• ESB (Ankara, not served from any UK airport)
  
• LIN - (unlikely as BGY and MXP are already served for Milan)

EASTERN EUROPE

• SVO - (Moscow not served outside of London)
• DME -(Moscow not served outside of London)
• VKO - (Moscow not served outside of London)
• LED - (St Petersburg not served outside of London)
• KBP - (Kiev not served outside of London)

 

[kraktoa]

An insider told me that they are not expecting any scheduled Atlantic or Middle East routes in 2017. No discussions currently on the table.

 

[Marko1]

So if a new airline come from those sources where would a "new airline" that has been eluded come from.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

An insider told me that they are not expecting any scheduled Atlantic or Middle East routes in 2017. No discussions currently on the table.

I'm not surprised at that. US airlines appear to be acting very cautiously because of Brexit when it comes to the UK and probably Qatar Airways would be the only one of the MEB3 that might be interested (last year their UK boss spoke of linking the South West with Qatar), but I believe they have an aircraft shortage at present and have reduced frequency on some routes.

So if a new airline come from those sources where would a "new airline" that has been eluded come from.

Looking at Severn's list, there don't seem many obvious ones. Istanbul with Turkish has been mentioned so often that the longer it fails to begin, perhaps the less likely it ever will: in the foreseeable future anyway.

Perhaps Sweden and Norway but they might only be summer routes. We know that SAS has tried short summer seasons to ARN in recent years with B 737-600 aircraft at 2 x weekly which had excellent load factors, but for whatever reason the airline did not return this summer. Oslo was operated in 2008 for the whole summer by SAS, 3 x weekly from memory.

Both routes might have built up had not the recession taken root in 2009 when at the same time SAS downsized and axed nearly half its routes, including those to BRS.

On a general point, Brexit and the falling value of the pound is likely to inhibit growth next year at many UK airports.

 

[Jerry]

I'm not surprised at that. US airlines appear to be acting very cautiously because of Brexit when it comes to the UK and probably Qatar Airways would be the only one of the MEB3 that might be interested (last year their UK boss spoke of linking the South West with Qatar), but I believe they have an aircraft shortage at present and have reduced frequency on some routes

Qatar only have 30 787-8's which i would've thought was the only aircraft they could use for BRS and didn't Qatar have it's A350 orders delayed? Etihad have a number of 787-9's but i'm not sure if they can takeoff from BRS's runway but they also I believe have a codeshare with KLM? so might think that is satisfactory. Emirates don't have any aircraft that could serve BRS.

So if a new airline come from those sources where would a "new airline" that has been eluded come from.

OSL and ARN could be options for Norwegian to get it's foot in the door at BRS 3 weekly for each and also could provide possible links to Norwegians Long haul routes as well.

 

[Marko1]

New charter flight announced today to figari Corsica in addition to a weekly Cagliari Sardinia service announced last week

 

[TheLocalYokel]

New charter flight announced today to figari Corsica in addition to a weekly Cagliari Sardinia service announced last week

Will that replace the weekly Bastia service operated by bmi regional for a tour operator in summer? Hopefully not as Bastia is in the north and Figari in the south. If not it will mean that BRS has two Corsican routes and two Sardinian routes - the other being easyJet to Olbia.

Addendum (17.10.16)

I've checked Corsican Places website and next summer is showing both Bastia and Figari, both operated by bmi regional with seat-only deals available.

Both operate on Sundays with Bastia departing Bristol 1010, arriving Bastia at 1335. The return flight departs at 1500 and arrives back at Bristol at 1625.

Figari timings are 1010-1335: 1435-1600.

 

[Marko1]

I understand that Bastia will operate early summer and from sept onwards with figari operating peak summer. Essentially it's the same once weekly flight just split between the two destinations

 

[TheLocalYokel]

I understand that Bastia will operate early summer and from sept onwards with figari operating peak summer. Essentially it's the same once weekly flight just split between the two destinations

A more detailed look at Corsican Places suggests that is the case. I happened to look at the 'overlap' weekend (early July) first when two flights appear to be operating.

 

[ethanegcc]

Below is a list of airports in Europe which handle more passengers per year than BRS but are not currently served from BRS. (I did remove LHR, LGW, STN, LTN, BHX and MAN from this list as these are all too near to BRS to assume that direct routes would be started(even though MAN has been served before)).

This hopefully will show which destinations may be at the top of the list for the airport/airlines for new services from BRS:

Note:
AIRPORT - Likely airport
Airport - Unlikely due to another airport served in same city already
Airport - Unlikely due to city not served outside of London or at all​

NORTHERN EUROPE

• OSL
• ARN
• HEL

WESTERN EUROPE

• ZRH
• STR
• CGN

• 
  
  
  • ORY - (unlikely as CDG is already served for Paris)
  • TXL - (unlikely as SXF is already served for Berlin)
  • CRL - (unlikely as BRU is already served for Brussels)

SOUTHERN EUROPE

• IST
• ATH

• SAW (second airport in Istanbul, unlikely to be served over IST)
  
• ESB (Ankara, not served from any UK airport)
  
• LIN - (unlikely as BGY and MXP are already served for Milan)

EASTERN EUROPE

• SVO - (Moscow not served outside of London)
• DME -(Moscow not served outside of London)
• VKO - (Moscow not served outside of London)
• LED - (St Petersburg not served outside of London)
• KBP - (Kiev not served outside of London)

I would earmark OSL/ARN for DY to make an appearance at BRS. HEL would be ideal for AY, offering Asian connections, however I can't see BRS coming before BHX unfortunately.

ZRH would be prime territory for a Helvetic E190 operation, once daily or even 5 weekly. I would have thought EasyJet would have jumped on the route before now. STR is an odd one, although I know FR has a strong operation from MAN - perhaps this is one route they could look into. For CGN, I am really not sure. Germanwings would be the obvious candidate but I think they only offer CGN from MAN and LHR in the UK for the moment.

As for ATH, prime territory for EasyJet, 2 weekly to start off, 320.

If Turkish weren't going through a rough patch at the moment, they would be the ideal candidate of the ME3 to throw their hat in the ring and get a loyal customer following in the market first. For starters, they could use a narrowbody, whereas BRS is probably out of range of a QR 320 and they have an awfully large number of connections. Maybe, 2018 could see TK arrive.