Bristol: New Route Development & Rumours

[rollo]

As TLY says Ian is usually very well informed on this sort of thing.

 

[IanFarquharson]

I have only heard the rumour from one source.
They have lots of new aircraft coming in S18 and BRS would be the next obvious base in my opinion.

 

[Marko1]

Has there been any rumours of the aforementioned airline coming from anyone close to the airport?

 

[superking]

The post in the BHX thread quotes BRS

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Jet2 is certainly expanding next year. We already know that existing bases are to grow in 2018. It may be that another base is planned too.

https://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2028552&c=setreg&region=2

For the past few months I’ve heard similar rumours about Jet2 at BRS next summer, including the likely base size and other details, with one source difficult to completely ignore. In case anyone wonders, that source is not a contributor to Forums4Airports.

It seems then that serious talks have been/are taking place but the longer it goes with no announcement the more I wonder if it will finalise. Any announcement about a new base for next summer, whether BRS or elsewhere, is likely to be made in the next few weeks I would have thought, probably sooner rather than later.

 

[alphagolf]

I would suspect any announcement of new airlines maybe held back until WorldRoutes next month which I believe is being held in Barcelona, but who knows anything is possible......

Jet2 is certainly expanding next year. We already know that existing bases are to grow in 2018. It may be that another base is planned too.

https://www.travelmole.com/news_feature.php?news_id=2028552&c=setreg&region=2

For the past few months I’ve heard similar rumours about Jet2 at BRS next summer, including the likely base size and other details, with one source difficult to completely ignore. In case anyone wonders, that source is not a contributor to Forums4Airports.

It seems then that serious talks have been/are taking place but the longer it goes with no announcement the more I wonder if it will finalise. Any announcement about a new base for next summer, whether BRS or elsewhere, is likely to be made in the next few weeks I would have thought, probably sooner rather than later.

 

[superking]

Just recently on the west ITV channel adverts seen jet2 with holiday adverts. No mention of airport thou.

 

[Jerry]

They advertise nationwide the Jet2 holiday brand.

Just recently on the west ITV channel adverts seen jet2 with holiday adverts. No mention of airport thou.

 

[superking]

They advertise nationwide the Jet2 holiday brand.

Must agree with that one,but cant see many going to bhx from this part of the world to get flights as they can get them closer. We will see what happens or not.

 

[Jerry]

Must agree with that one,but cant see many going to bhx from this part of the world to get flights as they can get them closer. We will see what happens or not.

It does happen. I know plenty from South Wales that use BHX I'd imagine people from BRS area would do the same as well. Not in the millions but maybe in the 10,000s.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

If - I repeat if - Jet2 did set up a base would it be consistent with the current CEO's remarks in an aviation magazine last spring that the airport's preference is to 'work very hard with our existing customers and only add airlines when it makes sense'? They only add capacity where there is a demonstrable need and demand which, the CEO said, 'works much better than overlaying additional capacity on top of existing capacity'.

Put simply, I read this to mean that they won't try to add airlines just for the sake of it.

Do members believe that there is sufficient need and demand for something like a Jet2 base - let's imagine it was four aircraft - without diluting existing airlines? Jet2 is now primarily a holiday airline with routes that in the main are served from BRS by existing carriers. I was going to say 'well served' but perhaps all are not.

A four-aircraft base would see an overall total of around 9 mppa at BRS in 2018, assuming that existing carriers did not cut back.

Reading the BHX threads both Vueling and Norwegian have cut back their presence at that airport with some posters musing that the arrival of Jet2 might have played a part.

 

[Marko1]

The particular Ceo in question is now leaving the business and I personally doubt the airport would turn away business if say jet2 approached it. Personally there is room for more competition. If krakow could support two carriers then so could Rome Barcelona etc. I think as the airport grows it would have to seek new carriers as I can't see Ryanair providing much more to be honest and easyJet may have bigger fish to fry in Germany and Italy in the next few years. However I'm refusing to get too excited as we have been down this route before....

 

[forest1979]

Not a fan of jet 2 personally and I don't see what they would add to the mix at bristol. From a holiday airline perspective I would prefer to see more TUI and TC growth.
I think BRS should be working to establish some full service airline routes (Swiss mentioned previously) or upgrades on KLM. If loco is a focus for them, then I would much rather see someone like Norwegian coming into bristol. They offer a whole lot more and better scope for routes.. sorry jet 2 but you don't get my vote. (Just my opinion)

 

[Jerry]

Does BRS actually need Jet2? Easyjet are always adding new routes. The airport has Ryanair and TCX and TOM are adding new routes and basing new aircraft as well. If Jet2 turn up then I'd be surprised if they would add new routes.

 

[Marko1]

You could ask the question of need to say Birmingham too where monarch and Ryanair are well established and the big two charter operators have bigger set ups than Bristol ( I accept the catchment area differences ). I am not a jet 2 advocate specifically but I do believe a third based low cost airline is the key to future growth at the airport. A daily Swiss Zurich or a Sas to Copenhagen will hardly dent the figures. Now that long haul schedule seems to be on the back burner I think the airport needs to refocus on what has made it very very successful over the last ten years - short haul leisure travel.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Does BRS actually need Jet2? Easyjet are always adding new routes. The airport has Ryanair and TCX and TOM are adding new routes and basing new aircraft as well. If Jet2 turn up then I'd be surprised if they would add new routes.

There aren't many routes that Jet2 currently operate across their network that aren't already served by existing airlines at BRS, so it's unlikely that any low-cost airline whether Jet2, Monarch or Norwegian would be in a position to add many new destinations.

When Ryanair decided to compete with easyJet's existing Krakow route overall passengers numbers held up (in terms of average loads - obviously the combined total was/is much higher than with easyJet alone); the same applies with easyJet returning to Venice Marco Polo against Ryanair's "Venice' Treviso who incidentally pretty quickly switched to M P from BRS themselves; Wizz Air's decision to compete with Ryanair on Warsaw (albeit to different airports) saw no diminishment of Ryanair's loads (very high) on its Modlin route and Wizz's are also very high on its Chopin route.

So that does suggest that there a number of existing routes, especially those away from the traditional sun destinations, that might cope with competition. Jet2 though seems to be increasingly a holiday airline so might not add too many (competing) non-leisure routes and might be more of a competitor with TUI/TCX than with easyJet/Ryanair. What we don't know is whether yields have been affected adversely by competition on the routes I highlighted in the previous paragraph.

Marko is right in the sense that if BRS continues to grow it really needs to expand the number of carriers. Relying on one major customer is inherently dangerous for any business and easyJet now handles over 50% of BRS's passenger traffic.

The trick is to bring in new airlines that can be a success without hurting existing ones that might then reduce their own presence. I would think that's not an exact science so there would be an element of 'suck it and see'. Were that not the case we would never see airlines beginning routes at airports that don't succeed, yet we do.

I think the airport needs to refocus on what has made it very very successful over the last ten years - short haul leisure travel.

There is a perhaps surprising amount of business travel on these short haul route at BRS. easyJet said a few months ago that half its 4 million-plus customers at BRS are business travellers.

I guess that if Jet2 does announce a BRS base a more meaningful discussion could ensue when base size, routes, frequencies are known. They might yet find another home for a new base or not start one at all at present.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

.........
I think BRS should be working to establish some full service airline routes (Swiss mentioned previously) or upgrades on KLM. ......

I quite agree. If BRS is to persuade customers not to make the eastbound journey along the M4 (a stated aim), this is where the development needs to be. Full service airlines are the bread & butter at LHR (although you can argue whether BA still meet that description now that they charge for bread & butter!).

So, LX via ZRH, SK via CPH/ARN/OSL, AY via HEL, OS via VIE, or maybe even AZ via FCO/MXP if they survive administration would all be possibilities. AF @ CDG are probably covered by BE from EXT.

Key to the success of any of these ventures will be pricing though. If it is signficantly cheaper to use LHR when considering total journey cost, people will not change their travel patterns and use BRS instead.

I'm not sure that existing arrangements ex BRS are marketed as well as they might be. For example, are the EI TATL connections pushed enough from BRS? US Customs pre-clearance at DUB has got to be a major selling point for business travellers in particular heading stateside. Also, SN tends to be overshadowed by KL (who admittedly have a larger network), but connecting at BRU is not much less convenient than at AMS, usually cheaper when I have checked, and the chocolate shops are far better!

All this could change of course if the LCCs can sign interlining agreements with full service airlines, of which there has been talk.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

BRS could certainly do with one or two more full service airlines, although (as has been pointed out re BA) the dividing line between full service and low cost airlines ('low cost' was taken originally to describe the business model) is becoming increasingly blurred in so far as the passenger experience is concerned.

The important difference is that full service airlines usually have hubs and interlining arrangements.

EI operated by a third party airline; LH a code share; SN operated by a third party airline; KLM operated by its Cityhopper subsidiary certainly provide a reasonable spread of interlining possibilities. The others mentioned by Kernow Bravo would be likely to be far harder to get on board at an airport such as BRS.

Over the past quarter of a century Air France to CDG has come and gone at various times, including a number of years when it operated alongside KLM to AMS after KLM and AF had merged. I'm not sure that the Flybe/AF code share at EXT (or at CWL) to CDG is the obstacle. I wonder how many people from the primary BRS catchment use the EXT service (or the similar one at CWL). They are more likely to go to LHR as they do on occasions even when BRS itself has opportunities via its linked hubs.

The most likely (although how likely I'm not sure) might be Swiss to Zurich. When Helvetic was operating BRS-ZRH I know for a fact (told me personally by a senior person at BRS with responsibility for such things) that the airport was trying to get them to increase from 3 x weekly to 6 x weekly that apparently would have opened the door for interlining at ZRH via Swiss.

As for marketing, by coincidence there has been another discussion in the past couple of days, this time on the Dried Plum, about the disappointing publicity machine at BRS with some posters from this forum having their say on the other forum.

Most people have no idea about what is on offer at their local airport. They need to be told and are unlikely to bother about such things until they want to fly somewhere. The source of information is usually a travel agent or personal interrogation of the Internet. Some might know local air buffs who point them in the direction of their local airport but that's probably very much the minority.

 

[Sherburnflyer92]

Dart Groups annual general meeting tomorrow. Let's see if any of these rumours come to fruition but i personally don't think they will.

 

[Kernow Bravo]

Most people have no idea about what is on offer at their local airport.

Indeed.

I was talking to an acquiantance last night who had been to Bruges on holiday. I asked him whether he flew from Bristol and his reply was that he didn't know that he could, so made the journey via Eurostar.

Now that many people book their own travel arrangements online rather than using a TA, it's all the more reason for BRS to raise their profile, otherwise people will not even look to see what's on offer @ BRS (or perhaps will only check the Easy Jet website thinking that they are the only airline operating at BRS).