You are missing the point of what I am making. Put the station at Hurst Lane and it has a business case in itself without the airport being open. I would say with an hourly service in each direction you talking about at least 75k passengers a year easily using the station, that is before taking the airport into consideration.
Yorkshire Wildlife Park visitor numbers:
2023 - 921,008
2022 - 932,444
So add that the attraction's entrance gate which is pretty much next to the station at Hurst Lane then you could easily add another 100k in passengers. So without an airport, a station could generate 150-200k passengers a year. So it has a business case already. Add the airport in as well, for instance the airport had one million passengers a year and having a railway station close by, you could increase passengers using the station to somewhere between 350-500k passenger journey's a year.
So the airport boosts the business case for the railway station even more.
Take for instance Hexham is a market town between Newcastle & Carlisle with a population of about 12k, it generated 394,724 passenger journey's during the 2023-24 financial year.
Take a new station built at Horden in the colliery villages just north of Hartlepool.
Population of the villages surrounding Horden station.
Horden (includes Blackhall & Blackhall Rocks) 7,200
Peterlee 20,300
Easington 5,000
Opened 29th June 2020. Council predictions were only expecting about 70k passengers a year to use it.
2020-21 - 33,038
2021-22 - 96,858
2022-23 - 99,564
2023-24 - 136,780
Populations surrounding a Hurst Lane station
Auckley Parish (Auckley & Hayfield Green) - 5,000
Blaxton - 1,200
Branton & Cantley - 1,200
Finningley 5,300
Rossington & Bawtry 14,000
Then you have an attraction with just under one million visitors right next door.
So I would say that a station at Hurst Lane is easily capable of generating 150k passengers a year. If airport reopened 350-500k passengers a year at the station.
East Midlands Airport is 6 miles from East Midlands Parkway station.
East Midlands Parkway saw 326,786 passenger journeys in 2023-24.
So my estimates for a Hurst Lane station are pretty realistic expectations given my vast of knowledge and experience in the transport industry.