Bristol: CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[TheLocalYokel]

CAA provisional stats for December 2008 show BRS handled 354,193 passengers, 12.5% fewer than in December 2007. Air traffic movements were down 8.6% in the month compared with December 2007.

Rolling 12-month total is 6,226,769, up 5.8% on this time last year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Very similar percentage fall to November.

I think January might be worse. easyJet have severely reduced rotations for the month and on Tuesdays this month there are only ten rotations in the entire day using Bristol-based aircraft - the NCL and BFS routes are worked by aircraft from those bases. A bit of a change from midsummer last year when 12 based A319s were kept busy each day throughout the week.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

January 2009

BRS has published its figures for January 2009 which show the airport handled 321,652 passengers in that month, down 14.45% on January 2008.

These figures will probably vary slightly from the CAA stats when they are published because, I am told, BRS does not include transit passengers in its figures whereas the CAA does.

I was expecting passenger numbers to fall by something appoaching 20% so perhaps this is not as bad as it might have been. Still not that brilliant though because atms were only down around 8%.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Yes it's not particularly good but better than the national average I would have thought.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

CAA stats now out for January 2009. They do do vary from the airport's own figures and show that 324,427 passengers were handled, down 14.3% on January 2008.

Rolling total for 12-month period is 6,174,410, up 3.8% on a year ago.

What is different is the CAA's stats show atms were down 13.7% in January which is far more than the airport's own figure of 8%. I was surprised at 8% because it seemed to me that far more flights had been cut compared with January 2008 so I am inclined to accept the CAA stats as closer to the mark. Maybe a glitch crept into this part of BRS's accounting system.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Presumably the CAA figures come from the airport in the first place. How bizarre! All in all not a bad month on the grand scale of things. Bristol is faring much better than many other airports around the country.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Yes, it is strange given the source of the CAA stats. I don't know either why BRS doesn't include transit passengers whereas the CAA does with Jan's figures being respectively 321,652 and 324,427.

This has been going on for years.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

February 2009

CAA stats for February 2009 are due out this week but the airport has already published its own figures for February and they are pretty grim, which is an understatement (the CAA stats will be show marginally more pax because as I explained previously BRS does not include transit pax).

At 319,544 February 2009 is down 26.19% on February 2008. Atms are down 18% on the same period which makes the passenger numbers look worse.

Charter passengers were down the most percentage-wise at 37.18% with sched international down 24.56% and sched domestic down 23.26%.

The only slight redeeming feature (and it's really clutching at straws) is that Feb 2009 had one day less than Feb 08 which was a leap year.

This would account for around 3% of the drop. This should be borne in mind of course for all airports' figures for this Feb.

March will also look grim everywhere as well (credit crunch apart) because in 2008 Easter fell in that month. This year it is in April.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

Bristol seems to be one of the airports that the credit crunch has taken longest to effect. Some airports were feeling the pinch last summer. Here in Leeds it took until November to pinch,now Bristol has joined us five months on. I assume this can be used a good indicator as to which airports are strongest placed to weather the storm as the last to suffer the effects will probably be the first to recover you would expect?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Something I forgot to take into account was the weather.

BRS suffered significantly from snow and ice in February and the airport was closed on a number of occasions because of it.

There was one day when almost nothing landed or took off at all and a couple of other days when the runway was shut for a number of hours with flights diverted or cancelled.

This might account for 6-7% of the 'lost' passengers which, when added to the leap year reduction, may mean the true comparison was nearer a drop of 16-18%.

Still not welcome of course but more in line with the previous months this winter (drops of 12%, 12.1% and 14.3% in Nov, Dec and Jan respectively).

BRS's last 'good' month was last August with a 9.9% increase. Sept and Oct saw increases in low single figures before the winter reared its troublesome head with things steeply downhill all the way.

The airport CEO says the airport is situated in an area that is more resilient to the economic woes (but as Mandy Rice D once said in a notorious sex trial, "He would say that, wouldn't he?") and he expects it to be affected less than its peer airports, as he put it.

Annoyingly, he didn't then go on to explain which airports he considers to be Bristol's peers. Can't be the entire UK regional stock, can it?

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

March 2009

Bristol Airport's own figures released today that show in March just under 389,000 passengers were handled, down 22.76% on March 2008.

In percentage terms the largest faller was charter traffic, down a massive 45%.

Sched international was down 21% and sched domestic down nearly 10%.

In the first three months of 2009 Bristol's passenger numbers are down over 21% compared with the same period last year.

Although March 2008 included Easter (in April this year of course) this looks like a trend developing which, if carried on through the year, will see the airport barely above 5mppa at the end of 2009. Charters are certainly down for the summer and the likes of easyJet are still reducing their timetable at the moment compared with that published, unlike in previous years. The extra Ryanair routes and aircraft from mid summer might make things look not quite so bad when the year's passenger numbers are totalled up.

April's figures ought not to be quite so dire because of the Easter factor.

As always, I add the rider that the CAA passenger numbers will vary slightly because they include transit pax whilst the airport doesn't in its figures.

If there is a silver lining, and it can only be a pretty jaded one, the terminal will not be so uncomfortably crowded for passengers at the really busy times this year.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

They will recover for sure when the April figures are released which will include the Easter passengers.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Bristol's Annual Passenger Figures from 1986

Bristol Airports's annual passenger figures in millions/parts thereof from 1986 to 2008 – figures from CAA.

1986 0.469

1987 0.645

1988 0.705

1989 0.838

1990 0.774

1991 0.783

1992 1.026

1993 1.112

1994 1.276

1995 1.431

1996 1.394

1997 1.586

1998 1.814

1999 1.966

2000 2.124

2001 2.673

2002 3.415

2003 3.887

2004 4.603

2005 5.199

2006 5.710

2007 5.884

2008 6.229

Only in two of these years was there a drop in passenger numbers over the preceding year (1990 and 1996, although 1991 also saw fewer passengers than 1989) with previous recessions the main reason, but by 1996 the country was starting to come out of that one.

It looks as though 2009 will be the third of such years, with another recession the culprit.

Although over 2 million annual passengers were reached without a low cost airline (except the Ryanair to Dublin), the spectacular growth began in 2001 when Go set up its base in the spring of that year, to be eventually bought by and absorbed into easyJet.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

The growth over the last decade in particular has been phenomenal. What year did Bristol get it's new terminal, it must have also played a big part in the increase of passenger numbers along with the arrival of Easyjet and Ryanair.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

The new terminal was opened in the spring of 2000 with a 15% of floor space extension (allowable under planning legislation without the necessity of obtaining planning permission) built about five years later.

The terminal is now too small though and can be unpleasantly crowded at times, certainly in the summer months. The reduction in passenger numbers this year will ease things a tiny bit but there is a real need for expansion if the airport is to progress to its 10mppa within the next decade.

I have in my possession some airport magazines and pamphlets dating from 1993 in which the airport set out its ten-year plan to 2003. In 1993 the airport had recently passed the 1mppa mark and its aim was 2mppa by 2003.

The management, then led by the Bristol Airport legend, the late Les Wilson, would not have believed that by 2003 they would be handling nearly 4mppa but no-one then, not even the charismatic Les who probably had 'Bristol Airport' engraved across his heart, could have foreseen the sea change that low cost airlines were to bring to regional air travel.

In the 1993 pamphlets the new terminal was discussed at length with plans that turned out to be very similar to what was actually built. However, in 1993 they thought they were being wise in designing a terminal capable of handling around 4mppa which they assumed would take care of the next quarter of a century.

How wrong they were.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Breakdown of BRS 2008 Total Passenger Figures Route By Route

Dublin (R of I) 314,971
Edinburgh (UK) 249,766
Amsterdam (Netherlands) 244,274
Glasgow (UK) 220,222
Belfast Int (UK) 211,923
Palma (Balearics) 207,158
Malaga (Spain) 202,327
Newcastle (UK) 202,178

Paris CDG (France) 199,038
Alicante (Spain) 193,895
Geneva (Switzerland) 158,553**
Faro (Portugal) 146,672
Barcelona (Spain) 129,525
Girona (Spain) 100,699

Prague (Czech Republic) 98,978
Toulouse (France) 95,865
Nice (France) 94,255
Tenerife South (Canaries) 94,281
Newark (USA) 90,159
Rome Ciampino (Italy) 89,572
Krakow (Poland) 89,565
Berlin Schoenfeld (Germany) 85,838
Shannon (R of I) 85,360
Murcia (Spain) 84,660
Milan Bergamo (Italy) 82,755
Madrid (Spain) 80,703
Venice (Italy) 80,410
Lanzarote (Canaries) 80,081

Inverness (Scotland) 73,960
Milan Malpensa (Italy) 73,683
Frankfurt (Germany) 72,889
Sharm el Sheik (Egypt) 65,213
Valencia (Spain) 60,302
Pisa (Italy) 58,851
Funchal (Madeira) 56,707
Larnaca (Cyprus) 50,431

Dalaman (Turkey) 47,878
Lisbon (Portugal) 47,797
Las Palmas (Canaries) 47,582
Bordeaux (France) 44,935
Fuerteventura (Canaries) 43,458
Wroclaw (Poland) 42,727
Heraklion (Crete) 40,910
Knock (R of I) 40,850

Riga (Latvia) 38,161
Mahon (Balearics) 37,920
Budapest (Hungary) 36,836
Brussels (Belgium) 36,092
Warsaw (Poland) 35,848
Dinard (France) 34,449
Bratislavia (Slovakia) 34,448
Corfu (Greek Islands) 34,172
Katowice (Poland) 33,625
Porto (Portugal) 33,380
Ibiza (Balearics) 33,134
Zakinthos (Greek Islands) 32,801
Poznan (Poland) 31,984
Derry (UK) 31,969
Jersey (Channel Islands) 31,855
Leeds-Bradford (UK) 31,511
Bodrum (Turkey) 30,976

Cork (R of I) 29,964
Rhodes (Greek Islands) 29, 711
Monastir (Tunisia) 29,348
Manchester (UK) 29,342
Beziers (France) 28,589
Salzburg (Austria) 27,264
Aberdeen (UK) 27,876
Guernsey (Channel Islands) 27,552
Rzeszow (Poland) 26,388
Paphos (Cyprus) 25,098
Bergerac (France) 23,740
Antalya (Turkey) 23,534
Grenoble (France) 21,187
Biarritz (France) 21,235
Gdansk (Poland) 20,235

Newquay (UK) 18,813
Naples (Italy) 18,701
Reus (Spain) 17,992
Kefalonia (Greek Islands) 17,891
Sanford (USA) 16,842
Chambery (France) 16,471
Innsbruck (Austria) 15,298
Bourgas (Bulgaria) 15,006
Split (Croatia) 14,886
Olbia (Sardinia) 14,735
Oslo (Norway) 14,414
Pau (France) 13,753
La Rochelle (France) 13,716
Kos (Greek Islands) 13,507
Verona (Italy) 12,322
Izmir (Turkey) 11,741
Malta 11,362
Turin (Italy) 10,323
Banjul (Gambia) 10,057

Marseille (France) 9,781
Plymouth (UK) 9,566
Hamburg (Germany) 8,781
Bremen (Germany) 7,718
Cancun (Mexico) 6,010
Sofia (Bulgaria) 5,877
Puerto Plata (Dom Republic) 5,840
Marrakesh (Morocco) 5,220

Plovdiv (Bulgaria) 4,701
Kittila (Finland) 4,397
Salonika (Greece) 4,134
Rovaniemi (Finland) 3,252
Stockholm (Sweden) 3,024
Szcezecin (Poland) 2,938
Bastia (Corsica) 2,930
Ivalo (Finland) 2,739
Hamilton (Canada) 2,567
Rome Fiumicino (Italy) 2,464
Bridgetown (Barbados) 1,366
Tarbes-Lourdes (France) 985
Enontekio (Finland) 649
Isle of Man 208

TOTAL ROUTES - 117

** Of all the UK airports, only LHR, LGW, LCY and LTN carried more passengers to Geneva than BRS's 158,000. BRS carried more passengers on the route than MAN (twice as many), BHX (40,000 more) and STN, as well as the other regional airports. This is quite remarkable for an airport of BRS's size and is due in part to the extremely large and vibrant ski market.

In addition there were one-off charters to Athens (Greece), Lyon (France), Le Bourget (France),
Munich (Germany), Palermo (Italy), Grosetto (Italy), Waterford (R of I), Dubrovnic (Croatia), Pula (Croatia), Bergen (Norway), Lins (Brazil) and Durham Tees Valley (UK) carrying a total of 1586 passengers.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

April 2009 Passenger Numbers

Airport's own stats show 417,190 passengers were handled in April, down 14.39% on April 2008.

In percentage terms the charter section was again by far the worst performer, down 40.47% on the previous April.

Sched international and sched domestic were down 11.55% and 5.35% respectively.

The total for the first four months of 2009 stands at 1,447, 250, down a whopping 19.58% on the same period in 2008.

Even Easter did not pull back some of the lost punters.

If the trend were to continue for the whole year 2009 would see just over 5 million passengers, compared with over 6.2 million in 2008.

However, the summer should see losses reined in a bit with the new Ryanair based aircraft and resulting new routes, and easyJet operating close to their advertised schedule which they are not yet doing.

I would still not be surprised to see 2009 as a whole down at least 10% over 2008.

Usual rider applies that, when published, CAA stats will vary slightly because BRS does not incude transit pax in its own figures.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

Where have the charter flights gone?

Today's (Saturday) arrivals board summarises the fall-off in charter traffic.

Between midnight and midnight there are 13 charter arrivals. In 2006 summer Saturdays saw 29 charter arrivals in that 24-hour period.

Today Thomson flights arrive from Tenerife South, Antalya, Alicante, Verona, Salzburg, Palma and Reus. Thomas Cook flights come from Dalaman, Corfu, Fuerteventura and Palma. In addition there is a Balkan flight from Bourgas and an Onur from Dalaman.

That's just two charter flights from Palma - on a summer Saturday! In 2006 there were six.

Although easyJet might be resposible for the demise of some charter routes (see below) it has not increased rotations to Palma on Saturdays. If this reflects the situation around the country Majorca's tourism must be suffering.

Charter destinations that are no longer flown on Saturdays include, Olbia, Bastia and Split. In fact, they are no longer flown at all and it is probably no coincidence that easyJet now flies to each of these places.

Brescia and Innsbruck have also disappeared, as have Monastir, Rhodes, Crete and Menorca, although the last four are still flown on other days, but they were in 2006.....in addition to Saturdays.

In 2006 the airport had six based charter aircraft (it now has four) and other operators were in evidence on Saturdays as well, such as Air Liberte, Austrian Arrows, Air Europa and Spanair.

One can see why Bristol's charter traffic is down by around 40% this year.

 

[TheLocalYokel]

Re: Passenger Figures

easyJet operates 3 x weekly to both Olbia and Split, but Sundays only to Bastia.

The XL factor is certainly very relevant. In 2006 there were two based aircraft operating the XL Group flights - a company B 738 and an Air Malta A 320.

In addition there were two First Choice A321s (or it may have been 757s, the equipment was switched around that time) and a Thomson 757 flying against each other, hence more flights to the same destination. Now there are just two TOM B757s and the overlapping of routes between FC and TUI has been eliminated.

Perhaps the sun routes withdrawal has been overdone, even in these economic conditions, because from early July Ryanair is to operate daily to Alicante against easyJets's 2 x daily. This will be the first route the two go head-to-head from BRS (except for Grenoble in the winter) although they both fly to different Belfast and Milan airports.

The INN summer route has an interesting history over the past decade.

It used to operate from July onwards with May and June operating from Exeter. They then tried a service from both airports right through the summer but last year the INN from BRS was withdrawn.

BRS has a Saturday summer Salzburg and for the past twenty-five years a Wed SZG as well, but the latter seems to have been axed this year, despite originally appearing in brochures. Until a couple of years ago there was also a Sunday high summer SZG operated by European's ancient B 732s.

Austria has been a frequent summer holiday destination for us going back more than twenty years and it has been noticeable how the holiday industry seems to be struggling there in the summer. Even five years ago hoteliers and tour reps we spoke to were complaining about dwindling numbers of leisure visitors.

 

[Aviador]

Re: Passenger Figures

I think this is just the way things go. Leeds has lost loads of destinations over the years and acquired new ones to replace them. I would say that many of them were lost because of changing trends, not just economic factors although these do of course play a part.