CAA Provisional Statistics Update

[CAN&I]

Cheers Scottie Dog. Completely agree. Its almost impossible to align the totals in one report to the route breakdown stats in others, which begs another question: which is accurate (assuming at least one is)? Makes m-o-m and y-o-y comparisons difficult, hence why 12.1 and the combination of 12.2 and 12.3 (ignoring the duplicates) seems to be least-worst source of component data, yet when you roll up the totals appear short.

 

[geoff]

A rise of about 22% for the month of January is great, never mind which set of figures is really correct.

 

[CAN&I]

A rise of about 22% for the month of January is great, never mind which set of figures is really correct.

Indeed. Even allowing for a margin of error in the data its a very strong start. Fuerteventura and Salzburg have made excelent debuts and even Chambery is up around 48% year on year. That extra based TUI aircraft is doing well.

 

[Seasider]

When it comes to data analysis, the CAA are "not very good" to put it politely. Their publication target is at least 6 weeks after the end of the month and they haven't even managed that this month. They should have been out on Monday

 

[Scottie Dog]

As previously discussed there is a discrepancy in the CAA passenger numbers - Table 9 gives 46,079 whilst the combination of passengers from Table 12.1 (International) and Table 3 (Domestic) is as per my report. Enjoy.

A full comparison of figures for January between 2019 to 2026 can be found here:

Statistics Analysis - UK-wide airport statistics - all UK airports

2025 Passenger Figures January to September

forums4airports.com

 

[CAN&I]

There is of course a layer of context to add to the AMS, BHD and TFS (scheduled) y-o-y reductions in Scottie Dog's breakdown.

AMS, BHD and TFS (scheduled) were impacted by a handful of cancellations in January due to the extreme weather and other issues. Also, Aer Lingus' BHD service was reduced to 5 flights per week from early January, where there had been 7 per week in place during January 2025.

Even accounting for zero growth y-o-y, an extra c1,900 pax would have made a huge difference to an already exceptional month.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Here is my usual monthly take on the CAA data - this time for February As usual there are differences in the figures when comparing the various tables, however I have used Table 3, 9, 12.1, 12.3 and 13.

A full comparison of figures for February between 2019 to 2026 can be found here:

Statistics Analysis - UK-wide airport statistics - all UK airports​

 

[Jerry]

So close to the 1 million in a rolling year!

 

[geoff]

Another good month, a great start to the year, 1 million soon,

 

[CAN&I]

So close to the 1 million in a rolling year!

Should be hitting 1 million across the rolling year in May or June so not long to go. 👍

 

[Foxlimayankee]

March scheduled routes LF's.

Some good improvements over Jan and Feb.

Tenerife could do with improving to reach that second weekly flight. I have a feeling it's down to the early returning departure time from Tenerife.
Dublin includes EI and rugby airlift.

As a comparison on the routes below in 2025 there were 25,096 passengers, in 2026 it's 33,515, and overall 2026 still saw better load factors. Things are (slowly) on the up!

 

[Jerry]

Concerned about KLM

 

[CAN&I]

Concerned about KLM

A lot of cancellations this winter mind - both weather and industrial disputes at Schiphol. Won't account for the whole drop but some of it nevertheless.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

A lot of cancellations this winter mind - both weather and industrial disputes at Schiphol. Won't account for the whole drop but some of it nevertheless.

Worth noting that my stats don't account for that. I do it based on the original schedules and unless I see a cancellation posted somewhere, it won't get taken out.

 

[CAN&I]

Worth noting that my stats don't account for that. I do it based on the original schedules and unless I see a cancellation posted somewhere, it won't get taken out.

Completely understandable. Thanks for sharing.

 

[Scottie Dog]

Thanks to #foxlimayankee for his take on the March statistics and here is my take.

 

[Foxlimayankee]

April scheduled routes LF's.

Some good improvements over Jan, Feb and March with most routes in the high 80%

As a comparison on the routes below in 2025 there were 36,657 passengers, in 2026 it's 43,821, and overall 2026 still saw better load factors with the exception of Dublin which by LF was a decrease, but by overall passenger numbers DUB still saw an increase.

 

[Jerry]

Good to see the growth!

 

[Scottie Dog]

My apologies for the slightly late CAA data for April. Unfortunately the heat and the need to garden have caused delays!!

 

[Seasider]

Sorry @Scottie Dog, but are these the same figures in the EMA thread?