2018 Passenger Predications
So as we go into the Autumn of 2017 when the key airline announcements are due from airlines stating their vision/intentions for 2018, I thought I would ponder on what potentially is ahead. So here are my thoughts...
New Routes in 2018 (Confirmed)
Jet2.com – Almeria (2x weekly), Antalya (2x weekly), Dalaman (2x weekly), Halkidiki (1x weekly), Kos (2x weekly), Krakow (2x weekly), Larnaca (2x weekly), Malta (1x weekly), Naples (2x weekly), Pisa (3x weekly), Rome (FCO) (2x weekly), Split (2x weekly), Thessaloniki (2x weekly), Zakynthos (2x weekly).
Primera Air – Boston (4x weekly), New York (EWR) (7x weekly).
Thomas Cook – Bodrum (1x weekly), Gerona (1x weekly), Thessaloniki (1x weekly), Varna (1x weekly).
Thomson – Hurghada (1x weekly), Podgorica (?x weekly)
Winter Growth
Based on the fact that many of the airlines that started in 2017 did so in March/April, growth witnessed in 2017 should continue until March 2018. As such, average growth since March 2017 is 19.2%. This equates to an additional +450,000 Pax.
Airline Growth
Aer Lingus = Additional +30,000 seats through increase capacity to Dublin (Winter 2017/18)
CSA Czech = Additional +5,000 seats through increase capacity to Prague (Summer 2018)
EasyJet = Additional +24,000 seat through new summer route to Geneva (Summer 2018)
Jet2.com = Additional +300,000 seats through increase capacity and 14 new routes (Summer 2018)
Primera Air = Additional +135,000 seats through 2 new routes (Summer 2018)
General Airport Growth/Maturity
On the assumption that new and existing routes will continue to mature and has been the case over the last 5 years, allow for 2% general growth on top of 2017 figures. This equates to an additional +260,000 Pax
Airline Losses
Emirates = Reduction of -13,000 seats from 3x daily flights to 2x daily flights (Jan-Oct 2018)
Norwegian = Reduction of -68,000 seats dropping 3 Spanish routes (Jan-Oct 2018)
United Airlines = Reduction of -82,000 seat dropping 1 daily routes (Jan-Oct 2018)
Vueling = Reduction of -78,000 seat dropping 3 Spanish routes (Jan-Oct 2018)
Total Growth* for 2018 so far= +913,000 Pax.
Assuming we achieve 13.3m passengers in 2017, this would equate to a total of 14.2m in 2018, or a growth rate of +6.9%
(* = assuming an 80% average Load Factor converting seats to pax!)
Airlines to watch for 2018….
Air India – They have had a great year so far with double digit growth figures and now LF into the mid-high 80’s pretty consistently. Will they grow? Will we see the rumoured direct flights to Amritsar or Toronto?
BMI Regional – They have a nice little niche set-up at Birmingham and I’d like to think there are another few routes they could service. Watch this space maybe?
British Airways – Started weekend charters in 2017 and schedule suggests they will return in Summer 2018. Same flights or will they add more?
Flybe – We know they are likely to reduce the base by circa 2 A/C but they want to make their aircraft work harder by increasing utilisation. What impact will this have on capacity?
Jet2.com – I suspect that they are happy with 14x new routes for the summer schedule, but what do they have in store for Winter 2018? I would expect some routes to go all year round but hopefully a few new city breaks and increase in capacity will be likely. Will unlikely find out until October this year however.
Monarch – Well they are going in for battle with jet2.com and we know they will be getting 3x new 737 Max in Q2 of 2018. Whilst the 737’s will replace their fleets, I don’t suspect this will be from Day 1, which hopefully means growth. Hopefully some more routes from them to come?
Norwegian – I am assuming they have gone but talk about unpredictable. Lost interest in short-haul non-scandinavian routes form the UK regions it seams but that doesn’t mean they won’t return. I’m not holding out hope however.
Primera Air – Well we are pretty certain (as certain as you can be) that there is more to come, with reports suggesting between 1-2 more routes to be announced next month. Toronto looking likely but where else? Definitely watch this space!
Qatar Airways – Reduced from 8 to 7 weekly from their launch, will they increase capacity back? Qatar are of course having their own problems, and signs suggest that the MEB3 are starting to lose their shine regarding massive growth. However, with Emirates reducing and a new passions for battle with due to political tension in the region, could we see Qatar go in for battle with increases in capacity?
Ryanair – Anyones guess. From big growth in Summer 2017 to reductions in Winter 2017, who knows what these guys may do? I think they have some good scope at BHX but do they have the appetite?
Thomson/Thomas Cook – Again, they have announced new routes which is good but many routes often fail to launch or are just about moving deckchairs around the ship? Are they growing?
Turkmenistan – Their terminal decline seems to have slowed and passenger numbers seem to have stabilised (at a low level). But they are loyal to BHX and have added a new weekly rotation for next year. But t what impact?
Vueling – was it something we said? All but their Barcelona and Paris routes have gone and I hope they stay. I wouldn’t be expecting new routes but who knows? Again, your guess is as good as mine!
Wizz Air – Now come on Wizz, what is going on? We offer you average monthly loads will into the 90’s on nearly all your routes. We know they got scared following Brexit, but have stated that in 2018, they will increase capacity in the UK by 25%. I hope we are in for a chance of growth here at least!!!
And then the wild card - do we think we will see any new airlines here at BHX. Primera Air was/is a curve ball for many. what else does BHX up its sleeve???
Conclusion
So that is my view as of the middle of August. I could indeed be wrong and as the above suggests, a lot can change Airlines are fickle bunch.
However, assuming no more shock exits from the BHX portfolio and that the economy doesn’t take a nose-dive (lets save that for ‘Brexit 2019’), I think we have a decent amount to look forward to. Do I think we can sustain the growth we’ve seen in 2017 – no. But based on the above, I think a growth rate of between 7.5-10.0% is definitely achievable? Let’s just hope the airport infrastructure can cope and doesn’t start to hold us back!
14,500,000 Pax in 2018 anyone????
