A new airport.... South Yorkshire Airport City?

[White Heather]

Oh good God...

"Utter twaddle": Richard Tice hits out at Labour over airport claim

Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has insisted a purchase of Doncaster Sheffield Airport “could be done quickly” with a combination of “political will and property nous”.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

Tice is giving a masterclass on how to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!

Why does a mad CPO move make a clearly nonviable airport viable? Let me help you out, Richard: it doesn't.

Strip away the lease question entirely. Imagine Tice gets his way and a Reform government acquires the freehold by CPO at whatever cost, the council's lease is extinguished, the public sector now owns DSA outright with no Peel involvement at all. The site is debt-free, the rent obligation is gone, the turnover share is gone, the volume break clauses are gone. What changes commercially? Nothing. None of the fundamental problems are caused by Peel owning the freehold; they are caused by the fact that the underlying market for a regional commercial passenger airport at this location doesn't support one. You still need carriers willing to base aircraft there. You still need passengers willing to fly from Doncaster rather than Manchester or East Midlands or Leeds Bradford. You still need a freight market that isn't completely dominated by East Midlands just down the road.

The lease has dominated the political conversation because it's the proximate problem, the document everyone can point to, the thing whose specific clauses generate quotable controversy. Farage is right: it's a disaster. But it's not actually the reason DSA can't reopen viably. It's just the reason the council's specific reopening attempt won't work. Even if the lease problem were magically solved tomorrow - by CPO, by surrender, by mutual variation, by whatever mechanism... the airport still wouldn't be commercially viable. The lease is the symptom of the underlying problem, not the cause.

I feel very sorry for Jason Charity. He's done a fantastic job of taking this mad project apart forensically and diligently. But he's being undermined by Tice and Farage who just wade in and mouth off without doing their homework.

The reality is that like most of the public, these politicians know nothing about the aviation industry and how it works. They just think there's this long runway and therefore airlines will flock to fly there, despite past evidence to the contrary. Despite the fact the industry is once again facing uncertainty and despite the fact there are three significant snd established airports within 50 miles which will always offer more.

 

[752]

Did somebody say a CPO isn’t possible ? Can someone confirm?

It’s a real mess, only people I feel sorry for is 2excel. Remained loyal to DSA but surely getting frustrated with the chaos. I wonder there plan B is

 

[Eusebius]

Did somebody say a CPO isn’t possible ?

They said it'd be very difficult, very onerous and expensive and would probably fail. I'm pointing out that it wouldn't solve the real problem even if it worked.

The real problem is that Peel were right: the airport isn't viable.

This is why the entire conversation has had a slightly hallucinatory quality. Everyone is debating questions one level removed from the real problem. Should the council borrow £57m? Should the lease be renegotiated? Should the freehold be CPO'd? Should there be private investment? Should there be early surrender? These are all reasonable enough questions, but they're all secondary to the question nobody seems to be asking: is there actually a viable commercial airport at this site, on any reasonable financial structure, at any time in the foreseeable future? And the honest answer is: no. Certainly not as a passenger hub of the scale envisaged. Possibly as a niche specialist site - cargo, special missions, engineering, maintenance or whatever - but only at a scale that doesn't justify the full reopening cost or the operational infrastructure of a commercial passenger airport. There'll always be someone who can find a use for a runway and some hangars when someone else is paying for them!

 

[pug]

They said it'd be very difficult, very onerous and expensive and would probably fail. I'm pointing out that it wouldn't solve the real problem even if it worked.

The real problem is that Peel were right: the airport isn't viable.

This is why the entire conversation has had a slightly hallucinatory quality. Everyone is debating questions one level removed from the real problem. Should the council borrow £57m? Should the lease be renegotiated? Should the freehold be CPO'd? Should there be private investment? Should there be early surrender? These are all reasonable enough questions, but they're all secondary to the question nobody seems to be asking: is there actually a viable commercial airport at this site, on any reasonable financial structure, at any time in the foreseeable future? And the honest answer is: no. Certainly not as a passenger hub of the scale envisaged. Possibly as a niche specialist site - cargo, special missions, engineering, maintenance or whatever - but only at a scale that doesn't justify the full reopening cost or the operational infrastructure of a commercial passenger airport. There'll always be someone who can find a use for a runway and some hangars when someone else is paying for them!

I think Peel would have all the information available and the legal backing to see to it that a CPO would not work. They closed an unviable business that was costing them around £10million per year to keep running. That alone would be enough to challenge.

Yes it’s frustrating when trying to appeal to the ‘will of the people’ that the true lack of viability is something that apparently must not be discussed. It sends out message that the airport will be a success which is far removed from the truth. Hence the narrative is as you say one level removed from the real problem.

The truth is really that they should never have been allowed to get to this point. They’ve been secretly hiding independent viability studies, releasing snippets of information to the public that doesn’t provide a true appraisal of the risk yet they’ll happily have a small mention about how high risk it is just to tick a box. It’s been playing to a wider cognitive dissonance amongst the population of Doncaster - ‘well it’s high risk but think of all the jobs’.. You still see it in articles like this where their financial advisors have said now is not the time to seek private investors as ‘the level of risk remains too high to secure private investment on preferential terms’. The council report apparently goes on to state ‘Advisers indicated that the optimal point would be at a later stage, once key risks have been mitigated and operations have commenced.’

"Utter twaddle": Richard Tice hits out at Labour over airport claim

Reform’s deputy leader Richard Tice has insisted a purchase of Doncaster Sheffield Airport “could be done quickly” with a combination of “political will and property nous”.

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk

But what is it based on? A growth forecast modelled on what exactly? Are we to assume that just having the airport open would make it attractive to the private sector? We know certain consultants like to use the best case figures for elsewhere in the world and apply them to the U.K. Have the council based their assumptions that DSA will see levels of growth and demand witnessed in the USA for instance? I’m sure I don’t need to explain why this is problematic.

Peel have set the bar high with the turnover rent specifically to deter the council from trying to run it themselves. Yet this is exactly what they’re trying to do. So how can the terms of the lease be problematic for the private sector if the terms are more favourable towards a private sector operator owning and running the business?

Now they’re between a rock and a hard place. The question is how much more money are they prepared to risk on this? Seems it’s going to bankrupt the council one way or another.

 

[Egyptian King]

Chadwick's a union militant,outted by a man called Dom https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1CrN8hdkDb/

 

[Eusebius]

The truth is really that they should never have been allowed to get to this point. They’ve been secretly hiding independent viability studies, releasing snippets of information to the public that doesn’t provide a true appraisal of the risk yet they’ll happily have a small mention about how high risk it is just to tick a box. It’s been playing to a wider cognitive dissonance amongst the population of Doncaster - ‘well it’s high risk but think of all the jobs’.. You still see it in articles like this where their financial advisors have said now is not the time to seek private investors as ‘the level of risk remains too high to secure private investment on preferential terms’. The council report apparently goes on to state ‘Advisers indicated that the optimal point would be at a later stage, once key risks have been mitigated and operations have commenced.’

Yes, it's brilliant isn't it. Get local taxpayers to take all the risk and cover the upfront costs and then give all the upside to a private investor! 🤣

I think it's time someone challenged the assumption that telling voters the truth about this is certain political suicide. A small but loud group of local communists and airport enthusiasts are making a lot of noise on Facebook, but are the majority of voters really so emotionally invested in DSA that they want it reopened at any cost and hang the consequences? I think not. I think Doncaster voters mostly don't care enough about the airport to punish honesty about it, and might actually reward it. Honesty is particularly rare in regional politics. Besides, I think people are cottoning on to the fact that this is a scam and they already don't like it.

A councillor or national politician with the courage to say plainly "this isn't working, it can't be made to work, and we should stop pretending otherwise" would probably gain rather than lose political standing with most voters. People get very very cross when they realise they're being had.

 

[pug]

Yes, it's brilliant isn't it. Get local taxpayers to take all the risk and cover the upfront costs and then give all the upside to a private investor! 🤣

I think it's time someone challenged the assumption that telling voters the truth about this is certain political suicide. A small but loud group of local communists and airport enthusiasts are making a lot of noise on Facebook, but are the majority of voters really so emotionally invested in DSA that they want it reopened at any cost and hang the consequences? I think not. I think Doncaster voters mostly don't care enough about the airport to punish honesty about it, and might actually reward it. Honesty is particularly rare in regional politics. Besides, I think people are cottoning on to the fact that this is a scam and they already don't like it.

A councillor or national politician with the courage to say plainly "this isn't working, it can't be made to work, and we should stop pretending otherwise" would probably gain rather than lose political standing with most voters. People get very very cross when they realise they're being had.

I agree, but we’re in a post-truth world and the access to information is unprecedented in human history. Unfortunately this access to information goes largely unchecked, you can post what you like on Facebook and people will believe it as fact if it already confirms their own bias. A lie is half way around the world before the truth has got its trousers on as they say. This is how the mechanic has created such a following, it’s also how things like Brexit happened.

So how do you temper it? You could quite easily have Jason Charity announcing that the project is not viable in any guise as an airport, but he’d be met with potentially thousands of made up ‘facts’ to counter it. I agree that most people capable of some critical thinking (those who challenge their own beliefs) would respect someone for doing that, but I don’t think that makes up a sizeable proportion of the population sadly.

I do hope this ends up in a public enquiry. I think one way or another it is almost bound to. It’s the only way we’ll ever get to the bottom of what exactly has been going on behind closed doors. My contact in SYMCA has suggested any chance questions relating to the airport that can be deemed as negative are frowned upon. Suggests to me a lot of financial and mental gymnastics have been required just to get to this point, some might say Olympic Gold Medal standard!

 

[pug]

Just seen on LinkedIn a comment on a post by someone from the Yorkshire Post made by an Aviation consultant:

What makes me angry is there are people making money from this ridiculous white elephant - mostly unscrupulous consultants!Nothing adds up - it never did. Once it collapses (now or later) all the inquiries and investigations will wrap up and no one will be held culpable.

This has been ‘liked’ by a couple of aviation bods, one being the Director of Safety at NATS!

 

[Egyptian King]

Just seen on LinkedIn a comment on a post by someone from the Yorkshire Post made by an Aviation consultant:


This has been ‘liked’ by a couple of aviation bods, one being the Director of Safety at NATS!

Also on there is the Bassetlaw section 151 officer saying it is too risky because is based upon a numerical model rather than airline contracts @pug

 

[pug]

Also on there is the Bassetlaw section 151 officer saying it is too risky because is based upon a numerical model rather than airline contracts @pug

Indeed. Just to rub salt into their wounds someone commented elsewhere on LinkedIn this.

Measure twice cut once. An average regional airport needs to generate 80m to stand still. I see no plan on ROl over 5-7 years. Has this been thought out or is this just a pipe dream. With the current potential issues on jet fuel and cargo / PAX numbers decreasing what is the plan B for DSA in a aviation landscape that is fully subscribed already and anchor tenants in competing airports already resigned to stay put rather than expand.

The same person also commented with this elsewhere.

DHL committed to EMA. FedEx to MAN etc. there is no plan and adhoc freight won't wash its face. You are correct what is the plan and which anchor tenants are committed on freight pax and GHA

This person has extensive experience holding senior positions at numerous air cargo operators globally.

This is a point of significant contention @Egyptian King because whether we agree with opening the airport or we don’t, the success of any enterprise like this relies solely on external stakeholders getting on board. What the council, and their appointed senior level heads at DSA are doing is trying to get to the point where they can have those serious conversations. The problem, as we know, is that those serious conversations were had over 17 years with very poor results. This is why it’s a strategy of hope and they’re using the tax payer as the enabler without being honest about the risks.

 

[Guppy]

It’s disappointing that the Doncaster Chambers still has not woken up. Free press chambers

This is rather embarrassing, a clipping from the article “The hot topic towards the end of the roundtable was about the Doncaster Sheffield Airport reopening and an important vote that is coming up on May 11 which could jeopardise the current momentum. Sally Jameson said: “It is go hard or go home with the airport opening, and people in Doncaster know that and want that.”
She also said she would be doing everything she can in Parliament to bring about the airport to reopening.
Dan Fell added that it would be “catastrophic” for the opening of the airport to run into issues with the vote, adding; “ We need businesses to voice more about the airport, which will help people to understand how important the airport reopening is to the city of Doncaster.”

So it sounds like they don’t understand simple Maths and Profit & Loss 🙄

 

[pug]

It’s disappointing that the Doncaster Chambers still has not woken up. Free press chambers

This is rather embarrassing, a clipping from the article “The hot topic towards the end of the roundtable was about the Doncaster Sheffield Airport reopening and an important vote that is coming up on May 11 which could jeopardise the current momentum. Sally Jameson said: “It is go hard or go home with the airport opening, and people in Doncaster know that and want that.”
She also said she would be doing everything she can in Parliament to bring about the airport to reopening.
Dan Fell added that it would be “catastrophic” for the opening of the airport to run into issues with the vote, adding; “ We need businesses to voice more about the airport, which will help people to understand how important the airport reopening is to the city of Doncaster.”

So it sounds like they don’t understand simple Maths and Profit & Loss 🙄

Dan Fell is also another one who has spent his career in institutions like the Chamber. He will say things like this because he truly believes in the grift that the airport can become like Heathrow. If you’re believing things like that then if stands to reason you’re going to support it.

Support amongst chamber members is not unanimous though, and there will be growing skepticism amongst its membership of that the airport could try it deliver and whether it’s the best way to invest resource and funds when they could be used for other means.

A bankrupt local authority can only be bad for business.

 

[Speedbird1]

Dan Fell is also another one who has spent his career in institutions like the Chamber. He will say things like this because he truly believes in the grift that the airport can become like Heathrow. If you’re believing things like that then if stands to reason you’re going to support it.

Support amongst chamber members is not unanimous though, and there will be growing skepticism amongst its membership of that the airport could try it deliver and whether it’s the best way to invest resource and funds when they could be used for other means.

A bankrupt local authority can only be bad for business.

And this is half the problem. Those supporting the reopening in official roles have very little private sector experience and clearly don’t understand how business let alone airports/aviation works. Recipe for disaster.

In other news it looks like there has allegedly been a rather serious comment made on the SaveDSA group and Reform have informed the relevant authorities.

 

[Eusebius]

Sally Jameson said: “It is go hard or go home with the airport opening, and people in Doncaster know that and want that.”

Do people in Doncaster really know that and want that? I think they're more and more of the view that this is a scam. And they are correct.

The problem, as we know, is that those serious conversations were had over 17 years with very poor results. This is why it’s a strategy of hope and they’re using the tax payer as the enabler without being honest about the risks.

Yes, and I didn't get it first time around. Where was all the unmet demand back in the early 2000s? Where were all those passengers going to come from? For DSA to be viable you'd have to close a nearby airport and move all the flights to Doncaster. That remains the case today. Unless there's a secret plan to close East Midlands or Leeds Bradford, then Doncaster Sheffield is totally pointless. It is nothing more than an incinerator for taxpayers' money.

 

[Egyptian King]

And this is half the problem. Those supporting the reopening in official roles have very little private sector experience and clearly don’t understand how business let alone airports/aviation works. Recipe for disaster.

In other news it looks like there has allegedly been a rather serious comment made on the SaveDSA group and Reform have informed the relevant authorities.

A death threat was up for a single day and now the mechanic has compounded it by publishing details of the Deputy's email
Also the mechanic's disciples have laughed it off as they think it is the one with the bald man in a tank when in fact it was a call for people to attack Reform which was left up for nearly 2 days

 

[radar]

Mr Chadwick is railing against “scrutiny” (scare quotes included) in his latest AI masterpiece. Yes, down with this sort of thing!

 

[pug]

Mr Chadwick is railing against “scrutiny” (scare quotes included) in his latest AI masterpiece. Yes, down with this sort of thing!

I’m finding it hard to keep up now. He does seem to keep reposting his yellow ‘fact check’ that is not a fact as it completely misrepresents the details of the turnover clause. ‘The council aren’t on the hook because it’s FlyDoncaster and not the council’ is a fundamental misunderstanding. In the eyes of Peel and commercial law FlyDoncaster is Doncaster Council. The turnover clause was designed to deter the council from having any involvement in operating the airport.

As for the death threats, it’s hard not to speculate. Chadwick has posted on his page an email chain between himself and Jason Charity clearing the air. It would appear he’s also forwarded the information to SY Police. Whether he intentionally left the post up for over a day or not remains to be seen, but as he appears to vet every post that is made on there I find it hard to believe he wouldn’t have seen it and acted on it sooner. Just my opinion of course.

 

[Egyptian King]

Nick Fletcher hints that Reform have caved and will support the loan by a majority 49-6.
The airport is opening by any means if Coppard releases the funding.

 

[White Heather]

Nick Fletcher hints that Reform have caved and will support the loan by a majority 49-6.
The airport is opening by any means if Coppard releases the funding.

Would anyone here believe anything he says? If that is the case, why bother with the meeting on the 11th?

 

[Egyptian King]

Qould anyone
Would anyone here believe anything he says? If that is the case, why bother with the meeting on the 11th?

Labour source also saying it